Module · Forecasts
Run Forecasts & Migration Radar
Bayesian run-timing models with climate-anomaly overlays. Forecasts refresh every 24h from sonar deltas, ocean temperatures, and marine heatwave indices.
Bayesian run model
10-year escapement priors fused with daily passage deltas. Projections use historical daily cumulative averages to calculate statistical completions.
Climate overlays
Gulf of Alaska SST, marine heatwave severity, and ENSO state aligned to each run window.
Migration radar
72-hour passage projection by river, calibrated against sister-system leading indicators.
Active Run WindowMay 15 – Sep 15
Cumulative Run Projection · Situk River
Projected chinook passage vs historical averages
Projected Run Total
1,392
▲ 5.0%vs historical mean
Peak Arrival ETA
Jul 9
±1.8 days, 90% confidence
Marine Heatwave (SST)
Cat 1 (Low)
Gulf of Alaska anomaly index
Goal Probability
15%
chance of meeting SEG range